March 10, 2026
| Loan Type | Rate | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Yr Fixed | 6.09% | ↓ 0.05% |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 5.69% | ↓ 0.05% |
| 30-Yr FHA | 5.69% | ↓ 0.04% |
| 30-Yr VA | 5.71% | ↓ 0.03% |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.45% | ↓ 0.02% |
Source: Mortgage News Daily, 3/10/26
It was a volatile week for rates, driven almost entirely by geopolitics and oil prices — not the usual economic data.
Early in the week, rising tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices surging. Higher oil means higher inflation expectations, and bonds hate inflation — so mortgage-backed securities sold off and rates pushed toward their highest levels in several weeks.
By Friday, a surprisingly weak jobs report provided some relief. Unemployment continued trending higher and job creation fell deeply into negative territory — one of the weakest reports in years. That's bad for the economy but good for rates, as a softening labor market reduces inflation pressure and increases the likelihood of future Fed rate cuts.
Then yesterday, President Trump moved to de-escalate the Middle East situation, calming fears that had been driving oil prices higher all week. Oil reversed sharply, bond markets rallied on the geopolitical headlines, and lenders repriced lower into the afternoon.
📅 The week in rates:
Mon–Wed: Middle East tensions spike oil prices → rates pushed to multi-week highs
Thu: Strong ISM Services data ignored — market focused on geopolitics
Fri: Weak jobs report offsets oil spike → rates pull back
Today: Trump calms Middle East fears → oil reverses → rates tick lower
February existing home sales came in at a 4.09M annualized pace — a 1.7% increase when the market was expecting a 0.5% decline. January was also revised higher to 4.6% growth. That's two consecutive months of positive momentum heading into the spring homebuying season.
This is significant because these sales reflect contracts likely signed when rates were lower in January — before the recent volatility. It tells us that when rates cooperate, buyers are ready to move.
Existing inventory rose 2.4% to 1.29M units, up 4.9% year-over-year. That's a welcome increase as we head into spring, but supply is still tight — we're at just 3.8 months of inventory, well below the 4.6 months considered a balanced market.
Friday's jobs report showed one of the weakest readings in years — unemployment continuing to trend higher with job creation falling sharply. While concerning for the broader economy, a cooling labor market is one of the key signals the Fed watches when considering rate cuts. This increases the odds we see relief on the rate front later this year.
This week brings CPI (Consumer Price Index) data — the market's most-watched inflation report. If inflation comes in cooler than expected, we could see rates improve further. A hot reading could reverse the recent gains. On top of that, any new Middle East developments will continue to drive bond market volatility.
Translation: It's a big week. I'll be watching closely — reach out if you want to talk strategy for any active deals.
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